Armenia’s election will test its leader’s pivot to the West

In 2023 Armenia finally lost a decades-long intermittent war against neighbouring Azerbaijan over a bit of territory known as Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, has been trying to wrest a diplomatic victory from the jaws of military defeat. Let down by Russia, Armenia’s longtime patron, he is pivoting to America and Europe and working on a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. On June 7th voters will give their verdict on his efforts in a general election. Opinion polls suggest he will probably win.

European leaders have lent their support. On May 4th Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, hosted a meeting of the European Political Community (EPC), a group of countries in and around the European Union. The next day the EU held its first bilateral summit with Armenia. The bloc is offering Armenia up to €2.5bn ($2.9bn) in infrastructure funding—more than 10% of its annual GDP. Armenia hopes to become a member one day.

Plenty of Armenians dislike Mr Pashinyan. Murals of fallen soldiers dot Yerevan, reminders of his failures during the war. Outside the EPC summit, protesters waved the flag of Artsakh, the erstwhile ethnic-Armenian statelet in Nagorno-Karabakh. Some refugees from the territory wanted their relatives’ bodies to be transported to Armenia; others called for Azerbaijan to free prisoners-of-war. Several demonstrators predicted that the pro-Western pivot would backfire. “He is turning Armenia into a playground for geopolitical games,” says one young man who fled Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.

Nationalist politicians are stoking discontent. Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian oligarch who leads the most popular opposition group, is under house arrest for calling for the government to be overthrown (he denies the charge). When your correspondent visited him in his swanky mansion, Mr Karapetyan accused the government of kowtowing to Azerbaijani demands. Mr Pashinyan, he says, is “attempting to trigger” a war with Russia.

Such views are not uncommon in Yerevan, a stronghold of the old elite. But they are rarer in the countryside, where the government has built roads and schools. Residents of border regions might benefit most from peace. Mr Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party polls at around 30%, well ahead of Mr Karapetyan’s outfit.

Mr Pashinyan has flaws. The anti-corruption drive of his first term has waned, and he has a populist streak that riles his opponents. “You get a lot more monologue than dialogue from Pashinyan,” says Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe, a think-tank. In March the prime minister was filmed arguing with a Karabakh refugee who refused to accept a Civil Contract campaign badge. He later apologised.

The Kremlin could meddle, too. Russia provides 85% of Armenia’s gas and maintains an army base there. Russian companies own vital infrastructure, a legacy of debt-relief deals made by previous Armenian leaders. Russia recently banned the sale of some batches of Jermuk, an Armenian water brand, on dubious sanitary grounds. Such tactics will probably deepen Armenians’ distrust of their old patron.

“The Armenian political mind is very prone to look for saviours around the world: Moscow, Brussels, Washington,” says Maria Karapetyan (no relation of Samvel), a Civil Contract MP. “My party thinks we don’t need to look for saviours.” Armenia’s dependence on Russia proved toxic. Now it is trying to play the field. ■