Trump’s grandiose peace plans may spell more pain for Gaza

“Our goal in the coming days is to bring smiles to the faces,” said Ali Shaath, at the launch of the Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (ncag) on January 16th. Gazans have had nothing to smile about recently. Mr Shaath’s longing aside, the new body may do little to change that. It is the closest thing Gaza has to a government. But it is unclear when it will take control of civilian affairs. So far Israel has not even allowed its 15 members into the territory. Their first meeting was held in Cairo.

Over three months since the tenuous ceasefire in Gaza went into effect, the unveiling of the ncag—ostensibly “technocrats” aligned neither with Hamas, the Islamists who still control nearly half of the strip, nor the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank—is the only sign of progress.

The White House has announced no fewer than three layers of officialdom over the ncag. First is a “Gaza Executive Board”, with members such as Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister; Ali al-Thawadi, a senior Qatari diplomat; and General Hassan Rashad, Egypt’s intelligence chief. Above that sits the founding “Executive Board” which will include Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy to the region; Marco Rubio, the American secretary of state; Jared Kushner, the American president’s son-in-law; and Sir Tony Blair, a British former prime minister. Some will sit on both. Notably, neither body includes a single Palestinian. The only Israeli is a London-based investor.

The “Board of Peace”, chaired by Mr Trump, will oversee it all. The president has invited various world leaders to join, including such noted peacemakers as Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. So far only a few, including Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Hungary and Belarus, have accepted. Permanent membership will cost $1bn. Its charter makes no mention of Gaza. Instead, dedicated to “effective international peace-building”, it looks like a challenger to the United Nations.

None of this suggests that a more permanent and meaningful peace is on the way in Gaza. Mr Netanyahu has already objected to the presence of the Turkish and Qatari officials on the Gaza Executive Board because both governments have been supportive of Hamas. The much-heralded second phase of Mr Trump’s 20-point peace plan was supposed to include a lot more than the ncag. An International Stabilisation Force (isf) was to have been deployed, Hamas forced to begin disarming, Israel to withdraw more of its troops, and at least the first steps taken towards rebuilding the devastated strip. None of this is happening.

Instead, Israel has built a string of fortified posts and expanded the “yellow zone” that it directly controls to about 55% of the strip. This is a flattened wasteland where only a few Gazans—members of clans and criminal gangs working with Israel—now live. The Israel Defence Forces (idf) is building outposts deep within Gaza which look more permanent (they are laying water and sewage lines). Israeli officers say they could stay for years.

In the rest of Gaza, where most of the population is suffering through a cruel winter, mainly in tents or barely patched-up bombed buildings, Hamas holds sway. It has recruited thousands of new fighters and clamped down violently on dissent.

Almost all of Gaza’s farmland is in the yellow zone and its population depends on food and medicine brought in by the limited number of aid groups and private companies Israel allows to work there. Israel has given no hint of when it will allow in desperately needed building materials.

Israeli officials warn ominously that since no one is disarming Hamas, the idf will have to be sent back into Gaza “to destroy Hamas”. Over 70,000 people were killed during the war, according to Gaza’s health authorities. Over 400 more have been killed in skirmishes and Israeli air strikes since the ceasefire began. For now, at least, America is holding Israel back from launching another wide-scale campaign. It is not clear how Mr Trump’s various boards will add to those efforts. ■