BACK IN 2010 it was known as Camp Phoenix, an American base. More recently it was called the Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital, where more than 2,000 patients—most of them hooked on heroin or methamphetamine—were given a chance of redemption. Now the site in Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, will be remembered for another reason: a Pakistani airstrike on March 16th that killed at least 143 people.
Pakistan claimed the attack was “precisely targeted” at a terrorist site. But reports from the ground suggest many patients and doctors at the hospital were killed. Though the death toll appears lower than the 400 initially claimed by Taliban officials, it is by far the deadliest attack since a conflict between the two countries ramped up last month. Christopher Clary of the University at Albany says the initial evidence suggests there were “very legitimate military targets” close to the hospital but that Pakistan’s systems for preventing civilian casualties clearly failed.
The reason for war is Pakistan’s claim that its neighbour is sponsoring terrorist attacks on its soil through a proxy, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan, which has complete air superiority and backing from America, seems unwilling to halt its bombing campaign until it has extracted concessions from the government in Kabul, such as steps to disarm or neutralise the TTP. The Taliban, for its part, has launched border raids and drone attacks on Pakistani cities.
The conflict could now escalate. The Taliban had looked divided over how to handle tensions with Pakistan. But “it will be very hard to publicly come to the table after such a devastating civilian attack,” says Avinash Paliwal of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Militant factions could respond by sponsoring a more spectacular attack in Pakistan.
Yet it remains just about possible that the war in Iran gives both sides reason to step back. Afghanistan relies on Iran for food, energy and building materials, all of which have been disrupted. Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to the energy shock arising from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On March 18th Pakistan announced a five-day pause in operations, to mark the end of Ramadan. Optimists are hoping that one war in the neighbourhood might help contain another. ■