Anatomy of a coup against Keir

The Labour Party rule book is required reading for political journalists. At times of turmoil, the PDF racks up thousands of clicks. As nearly 100 of Sir Keir Starmer’s MPs turn against him, the manual is being pored over again.

The document explains that any potential challenger to Sir Keir needs to secure the nominations of 81 MPs (one-fifth of the parliamentary party) to trigger a leadership election. If the prime minister chose to fight, he would automatically be nominated. If he resigns, potential candidates would additionally require the backing of 5% of local Labour Party branches or three affiliated organisations (including two trade unions). If only one candidate is nominated, they would become leader by default, like Gordon Brown in 2007.

The nomination process makes it impossible for the hard-left, Corbynite wing of the party to field a candidate. The Socialist Campaign Group, which represents it in Parliament, has just 24 MPs. Instead, leadership candidates would probably come from the party’s soft left (including figures such as Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband), centre-left (Yvette Cooper, John Healey) or centrist factions (Wes Streeting, Pat McFadden). The process makes it hard for more than three candidates to get on the ballot.

If an election is triggered, Labour members—330,000 of them—would be able to pick the next prime minister. Recent leadership contests have taken months but none has taken place while Labour is in government.

So who are those Labour members? Polling published after the general election of 2024 suggests they are disproportionately male (57%), old (72% over the age of 50) and middle-class (72%). They are eye-wateringly left-wing (though the left-most members may have departed). Almost nine in ten say taxes and public spending should be increased, compared with six in ten Labour voters. They tend to be pro-immigration.

The peculiarities of the group mean polls should be taken with a pinch of salt. Those that exist suggest members most favour Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester. But he is not an MP. A different section of the rule book deals with the procedural rigmarole he would need to navigate to become one.

Whoever the candidates are, Labour’s rules could put the final decision in the hands of an unrepresentative body of left-wing anoraks. The public would—fairly—feel they deserve a say. Though none is required, the demand for a general election could become intense. ■