An insurgency may be brewing against Syria’s new leaders

The meandering roads through Latakia, Syria’s Alawite heartland, feel deceptively calm. In March they were the scene of massacres by pro-government forces in which more than 1,500 people were killed after an attempted insurrection by Alawite militants. The bloodshed jolted Syria awake to sectarian tensions that many had preferred to ignore.

The Alawites, the sect of which the Assads were part and from which they drew most of their senior officials, have borne the brunt of the new government’s lay-offs and subsidy cuts. Buildings in Latakia are crumbling. Hundreds of thousands of ex-civil servants and members of the army are jobless. “They feel as though they no longer belong to what is happening,” says an Alawite businessman in Damascus.

At least 25,000 Alawites have already fled to Lebanon, including thousands of former officers and soldiers. Others have gone as far as Indonesia. Those who remain often refuse to leave their villages after dark. Some seek refuge in the hills, sleeping in caves and remote farmhouses.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has left the Alawites divided. But new leaders may now be emerging. In late November a hardline, sectarian cleric, Ghazal Ghazal, rallied thousands in mostly peaceful protests after a sectarian killing. Mr Ghazal has called for a self-governing Alawite region, an idea swiftly dismissed in Damascus, where even talk of federalism is seen as a prelude to partition. Others are demanding an international protection force. And some simply crave inclusion. “We just want to be part of the country again,” says a former teacher in the capital.

But there are also indications that others favour different tactics. Some have not reconciled themselves to their new ruler in Damascus. Whispers of dissent are growing. In recent months calls to arms have circulated among thousands of former officers. “We’ll split our forces into sleeper cells and assault units,” growls a man in audio messages from ex-regime officers reviewed by The Economist.

According to these officers, the voice belongs to Mohammed Jaber, a notorious militia commander under Mr Assad. Former officers say Mr Jaber and his brother, Ahmed, are part of a network seeking to foment rebellion against Syria’s jihadist-turned-president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Several who fled Syria claim he has approached them with offers of salaries. Another faction is linked to Suheil al-Hassan and Kamal al-Hassan, two former generals who decamped to Moscow with Mr Assad.

So far, few seem tempted. “He is leading our community towards another massacre,” cautions one former officer now in hiding in Beirut, who says he is trying to dissuade friends from joining. But these groups seem to be doing more than talking. A cluster of shadowy ngos, allegedly linked to the Jabers and the Hassans, has been distributing small stipends to destitute Syrian refugees in Akkar, a district in northern Lebanon. Earlier this year they tried to establish two training camps in Lebanon to prepare thousands of insurgents for a covert return to Syria. The effort fizzled out once they realised they lacked political cover to operate so brazenly on Lebanese soil. Even so, for Mr Sharaa, Syria’s Alawites will remain a worry. ■