America’s peace initiative has stalled in Moscow

AFTER A FORTNIGHT of American diplomacy dialled up expectations of a peace deal, Vladimir Putin dialled them down on December 2nd with an evasive da-but-nyet. Russia’s ruler kept Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy, and Jared Kushner, his powerful son-in-law, waiting for two and a half hours in Moscow. Mr Putin was busy delivering a hawkish speech to a hall of investment bankers, declaring his readiness to take on a war with Europe. When he deigned to meet the Americans, it was for five hours of detail-free talks focused on the “essence” of Russia’s position, according to Yury Ushakov, a presidential adviser. The two sides were no “further from peace”, he insisted. An observer might say they were no closer.

The meeting followed talks between Ukrainian and American officials in Miami on November 30th. Those had produced a revised 20-point framework that left the hardest issues—territory, neutrality and reparations—for a meeting between Messrs Trump and Zelensky. Ukrainian negotiators who met Mr Zelensky in Dublin on December 2nd to debrief him were unsurprised that the Moscow talks fizzled out. “We have lots of convergence with the US,” said Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister. “But I’m afraid it looks like Putin does not want a deal.”

The documents presented in Moscow remain confidential, but they differ significantly from the Miami draft, itself a rewrite of a framework put together with European leaders a week earlier in Geneva. In Moscow, Kremlin advisers talked of “four separate papers”, causing confusion in Ukraine and Europe. The reference may simply result from Ukraine’s request that America discuss bilateral issues with Russia separately. But multiple texts raise the prospect of Russian negotiators slicing up agreements as they see fit.

For Ukraine, the strategic noose is tightening. Europe still cannot agree on a common line on defence or funding. Emboldened by recent gains on the battlefield (see charts), Mr Putin is hardening his demands. On the eve of talks, a Kremlin source told NBC News that the Russian leader would not yield on three points: further territorial claims in the Donbas; a cap on Ukraine’s army; and recognition of occupied lands as Russian. All are intolerable for Ukraine and for Europe. Mr Putin even taunted European leaders for supposedly blocking peace, a line that appeared designed to encourage a transatlantic rift. A Ukrainian intelligence official says Russia “will try to sabotage the peace process with impossible conditions”.

The war is far from being Mr Zelensky’s only concern. For almost a month a massive corruption scandal centred on Energoatom, the state nuclear company, has been shaking the country’s ruling elite. On November 28th Andriy Yermak, the presidential chief of staff seen as the linchpin of a dirty system, was forced out after a raid by anti-corruption investigators. For six years Mr Yermak’s oversize figure dominated domestic politics. Informed sources suggest he may face charges, though he denies any wrongdoing.

Mr Yermak told an American journalist that his next move might be to enlist as a soldier. Signing up would preclude a criminal court case, say legal experts. But it would not stop an ongoing investigation from proceeding.

As The Economist went to press, it was unclear who would be appointed to fill Mr Yermak’s heavy boots. Two names are believed to be under consideration. Mykhailo Fedorov, the 34-year-old deputy prime minister, is well regarded by many for his work in digitalising Ukraine’s government. Denys Shmyhal, the 50-year-old defence minister and ex-prime minister, is seen as a safe pair of hands. A bigger question is how far Mr Zelensky dares go to purge his system, and whether Mr Yermak’s influence and appointees, many of whom occupy key positions, will follow him out of the door. If Mr Zelensky does not implement a thorough reset, one may be forced on him. Ukraine’s MPs, long sidelined by the war and worried about their popularity, may try to impose a new technocratic government.

The Trump administration has taken advantage of Mr Zelensky’s weak position to push him to accept its peace initiative. Whether in pursuit of political popularity, economic opportunities or other reasons, Mr Trump seems bent on getting a deal quickly. Paradoxically, Mr Putin’s stubborn manipulation and procrastination could ease the pressure. The credulous Mr Witkoff’s visit was his sixth to Moscow. America had hoped for a breakthrough by the end of November. But it seems unlikely that much will happen before year’s end. Nonetheless, Mr Kyslytsya, remained diplomatically optimistic on his way back to Ukraine, insisting there had been forward momentum. “Yes, we are doing circles—but we are circling upward. Think of it as a spiral of peace.” ■