ON DECEMBER 4th, as The Economist went to press, Vladimir Putin was due to touch down in Delhi for the 23rd instalment of the India-Russia summit, an annual affair with many manly hugs and lots of bonhomie. This is Mr Putin’s first visit to India since he launched his war in Ukraine in 2022. He will be feted with full pomp: a private dinner at the official residence of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister; a day full of summitry; a state dinner at the president’s home; and a visit to the memorial of Mahatma Gandhi, perhaps the world’s greatest advocate of non-violence.
India and Russia share a deep and long relationship. Throughout India’s years of “non-alignment” with the great powers during the cold war and its recently rebranded “multi-alignment” strategy, the pair have remained steadfast partners. India sees Russia as a steady ally that has come to its aid in times of need. Well over half of Indians had a favourable view of Russia in 2023, compared with a 24-country median of 15%, according to a poll by Pew Research Centre, an American think-tank. RT, a Kremlin-funded propaganda outlet, advertises itself in India as “A new voice from an old friend”.
During the past two decades, India had appeared to be drifting from Russia’s orbit, slowly overcoming its historic distrust of the West. It had been drawing ever closer to America under leaders from both of the main parties in both countries. Relations grew stronger during Donald Trump’s first term. The American president and Mr Modi established a strong personal rapport. Both leaders visited each other’s countries and addressed massive rallies. Yet the second Trump administration has slapped India with tariffs of 50%—in part for buying Russian oil—and at one point called India’s economy, which grew 8.2% in the most recent quarter, “dead”. Mr Modi has been avoiding summits where he might bump into Mr Trump.
India has responded by very publicly cosying up to Mr Putin and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, most notably at a summit near Beijing in August. Photos of Mr Modi embracing Mr Putin this week will in part be intended to reinforce the message to America that India has plenty of other economic and defence partners. Moreover, India has no desire to see Russia fall entirely under China’s influence.
Talks this week will focus on deepening trade and defence ties. Russia’s S-400 air-defence system was a “game-changer” in India’s war with Pakistan in May, its air force chief said recently. India is keen to acquire more. New platforms are also on offer. One is Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighter jet, which Indians already turned down once, partly for not being stealthy enough. An updated offer comes with a full transfer of technology. Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin’s spokesman, has said that S-400s and the Su-57 are high on the agenda of the Russian president’s visit, according to Indian state media. The pair are also discussing co-producing the next-generation S-500 missile-defence system.
Though Russia is India’s biggest arms supplier, accounting for over a third of its defence imports, that share is down from nearly three-quarters a decade or so ago. India increasingly looks to America, France and Israel for modern weapons platforms, and is trying to build up its indigenous capabilities. Besides, Russian kit is developing a reputation for shoddy quality and supply disruptions—not helped by the war in Ukraine. India is still waiting for two of the five S-400 systems it ordered in 2018.
Another big topic of discussion is trade. India has spent the past three years buying cut-price Russian oil, reducing its import bill while helping Russia fund its war. The share of oil coming from Russia jumped from 2% before 2022 to 36% last year, saving India $13bn on its energy bill in the first two years of the Ukraine war, according to ICRA, a ratings agency. That arrangement now appears to be coming to an end as a result of American sanctions on Russian oil firms that kicked in last month, and European ones that are expected to take effect next month.
Yet even as India’s refiners—both private and state-owned—are dumping Russian crude, Indian officials are already speculating about when to reopen the taps. Some analysts think a workaround may be found, though it will not be immediate. It may have to wait for India to sign a trade deal with America or for Russia to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine. That could be days, weeks or years away. In the meantime, Mr Trump is making the India-Russia relationship great again. ■
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