Takaichi Sanae’s confidence is immense. Since she took the helm of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) and became Japan’s first female prime minister last October her administration’s approval ratings in many polls have consistently exceeded 70%. At a press conference on January 19th, less than 100 days into her term, she confirmed what had long been rumoured in the Japanese press. She called a snap election for Japan’s powerful lower house, to be held on February 8th.
The campaign will be the shortest in Japan’s post-war history. And it comes little more than a year after the previous poll. Ms Takaichi (pictured) says it is essential that voters be given a chance to approve her leadership and the new ruling coalition she formed after she was picked as leader of the ldp. “Let the people decide whether or not Takaichi Sanae should be prime minister,” she declared. She promises an aggressive industrial policy and reforms that will enable Japan to better defend itself. She has also called for tax cuts and an end to “excessive austerity”. The prospect of a strong mandate for her expansionary agenda sent shock waves through bond markets, with yields on Japanese long-term bonds reaching record highs.
Ms Takaichi is gambling that she can consolidate power while her popularity remains high. She hopes to lead the ldp to a stronger position in the lower house than the one-seat majority it currently commands along with its coalition partner. The question is whether her personal appeal will be enough to help her party (which is less popular than she is) fend off the challenge from a new opposition alliance and from populist outfits.
Ms Takaichi’s plain-spoken rhetoric and her everywoman background contrast strongly with the personalities of the men who preceded her. Among voters under the age of 30, approval of her government exceeded 90% in one recent poll. Her main policy accomplishments so far amount to a supplementary budget full of goodies that are meant to soothe the pain of inflation; and deft handling of visits by foreign leaders, including Donald Trump. Standing up to Chinese pressure amid a recent diplomatic spat over Taiwan has probably helped reinforce her standing as well.
But Ms Takaichi is aware that the adulation may be fleeting. And Japanese who respect her do not necessarily like her party. The ldp has long dominated Japanese politics, but in recent years scandals have sullied its image. After Ms Takaichi was selected as party leader, the ldp’s longtime coalition partner, Komeito, ended their 26-year partnership. Pernicious inflation and the growing role of social media in campaigning have also helped make politics in Japan more competitive.
Support for the ldp has risen slightly since Ms Takaichi took office, to around 35%. That is a lot higher than the ratings any of Japan’s other parties enjoy. But it is about the same as it was at the time of the last lower-house election, in October 2024—and on that occasion the ldp ended up losing its outright majority. Ms Takaichi’s decision to call the election has worried some senior members of the party. “I’m a bit perplexed by the timing of the dissolution,” admitted Onodera Itsunori, an ldp heavyweight.
The ldp’s opponents are waiting to pounce. The main centre-left opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has this month joined forces with Komeito by creating a new group they are calling the Centrist Reform Alliance. The alliance has some LDP members spooked, mostly because Komeito commands support from members of Soka Gakkai, a Buddhist religious group whose backing can be crucial in some districts.
Newish, populist parties pose a different threat. The Democratic Party for the People, a centrist outfit with populist flair, and the Do It Yourself Party (Sanseito), a nativist group on the hard right, have both made big inroads in the past two election cycles. Both have seen their polling numbers slide since Ms Takaichi took office. Yet the underlying factors that have helped fuel their emergence—notably worries about immigration and inflation—remain very potent.
If the ldp manages to win back its outright majority in the lower house, Ms Takaichi will have a freer hand to pursue her preferred policies. Markets reckon the chance of this is high, as indicated by the turbulence in the bond markets. Yet Ms Takaichi seems to have no illusions about the risks. She said she had “put my own position as prime minister on the line”. ■