Syria’s transition has gone better than expected

FROM the start of Syria’s revolution in 2011 the regime said the country faced a choice: Assad or chaos. The dynasty that had ruled since 1971 warned that Syria would collapse without its iron grip. This was always a lie. It was Bashar al-Assad’s refusal to stand down, and his murder and torture of peaceful protesters, that plunged Syria into civil war.

On December 8th 2024, after a lightning rebel offensive, the hated tyrant was forced to flee into exile. The past year has proved that his country can cope remarkably well without him. His successor, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is exactly the sort of character Mr Assad told his loyalists and outsiders to fear: a former jihadist. Yet Syria has not tipped into chaos. Though there are reasons to worry about the kind of state Mr Sharaa is building, he has done a laudable job of holding the country together.

Start with his performance on the world stage, where he has proved to be a deft diplomat. He has charmed his Western counterparts, chief among them President Donald Trump, who welcomed him to the White House last month. America has temporarily waived the sanctions it imposed on Syria during Mr Assad’s rule and is working to scrap them. Gulf states are mostly enthusiastic about Mr Sharaa, and he is labouring to make peace with Israel (which has unwisely met his overtures with hostility).

All this adds up to a profound change in the Middle East. A country that was once a despotic client of Iran and Russia is now trying to join the region’s pro-Western camp. Instead of flooding its neighbours with illicit drugs—Syria’s main export in the latter days of Mr Assad’s regime—it is now courting Gulf states for investment.

Next, consider what has not happened since Mr Assad’s flight from Damascus. Syria has not lapsed back into civil war, a fate that befell other Arab countries after their own violent revolutions. Nor has Mr Sharaa sought to impose Islamic law. Bars in Damascus are still serving; women are not forced to cover up or stay at home. The president has been a pragmatist.

Syria’s economy has been wrecked by war and sanctions. GDP is down more than 70% since 2011. Millions of people need homes, jobs and services. Mr Sharaa has not fixed their problems—but no Syrian leader could have done so in a single year. It is unfair to fault him for failing to do the impossible.

However, it is not too soon to judge the way he is trying to govern. He seems uninterested in rebuilding the formal state, which was hollowed out by dictatorship. Instead he is creating parallel structures. His decision last month to establish a new customs authority, run by a former jihadist comrade, does not bode well. Syria’s main source of tax revenue is now controlled by a crony rather than by the finance ministry.

Furthermore, Mr Sharaa has done far too little to reassure minority groups. Pro-government forces committed two atrocious massacres of religious minorities this year (killing Alawites in March and Druze in July). Mr Sharaa condemned the killings and says the right things about Syria’s mosaic of faiths and ethnicities. But he acts as if he is oblivious to the fact that many Alawites, Druze and Christians view a Sunni-dominated state led by an ex-jihadist as a danger.

He must do more to share power, which today is concentrated among a handful of his relatives and confidants. Ministries should be buttressed rather than bypassed. He should engage more with the robust civil society that emerged during the civil war. An early test will come when Syria’s new parliament is seated, probably in January. It could be a check on presidential authority; it could also prove to be a rubber stamp, like the old regime’s legislature. That would be a tragedy. Mr Sharaa has done a commendable job in his first year. But his task is not just to hold Syria together; it is to create something that is different from the one-man show he overthrew. ■