Drama in the Philippines after the vice-president is impeached

THE IMPEACHMENT of the vice-president of the Philippines, Sara Duterte, on May 11th marked the start of a dramatic week in Manila. The spectacle ramped up on May 13th when pro-Duterte senators holed up in the Senate building, claiming to be under violent siege by government law enforcers. The chaotic scenes, unusual even by the notorious standards of Philippine politics, speak to what is currently on the line: the kind of leadership that will take over the country from 2028.

Ms Duterte, the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, a former strongman president, represents one of the country’s two most powerful political clans. In 2022 she hitched her fortunes to the leader of the other one, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, whose own father was a corrupt, violent dictator. Bongbong rode to the presidency on their combined ticket. Then the two fell out spectacularly.

For Mr Marcos’s backers, with a solid majority in the House, the impeachment is a chance to finish off Ms Duterte and her clan (whose power and politics is rooted in gun-ridden Mindanao in the south, where feuding starts before breakfast). The Senate must now put Ms Duterte (pictured) on trial; conviction requires a two-thirds majority and would prevent her standing for president in 2028. Yet the president’s sway in the Senate is tenuous. For now Ms Duterte is still the favourite to take the Philippines’ top job in two years’ time.

In 2024 Ms Duterte boasted that, should anything befall her, she had booked an assassin to kill Mr Marcos, his wife and the speaker of the House at the time. Yet insiders think that is the weakest of four articles of impeachment. The strongest, they say, are charges of corruption and unexplained wealth. The Anti-Money Laundering Council says it has uncovered at least 6.8bn Philippine pesos ($110m) in suspicious transactions tied to Ms Duterte’s and her husband’s accounts.

Ms Duterte’s allies are now attempting to prevail in the 24-member Senate. Just before the impeachment, Alan Peter Cayetano, a Duterte ally, secured the votes necessary to unseat the Senate president. He swiftly granted protective custody to Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, who was Rodrigo Duterte’s police chief and overseer of his extrajudicial war on drugs, in which thousands died. Mr Duterte is now in The Hague awaiting trial before the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of murder, torture and rape. In the Senate chamber on May 11th Mr dela Rosa reappeared from hiding to help vote Mr Cayetano president. Federal agents attempted, but failed, to serve an ICC warrant on him.

Then, in the evening of May 13th, gunshots were heard inside the Senate building. Pro-Duterte senators inside claimed to be under siege by government agents. On television, Mr Marcos denied any government operations. It smells of a manufactured crisis; the Senate’s own forces, now reporting to Mr Cayetano, may have fired the shots—at whom, if anybody, remains unclear. (In the chaos, Mr dela Rosa appears to have slipped away.)

When it begins, Ms Duterte’s Senate trial will be all about politics, not legal guilt. Conviction is not assured. Some senators are under the cloud of a huge corruption scandal involving funds for flood-control projects and may throw their weight behind Ms Duterte as a way to stay out of prison. Others will weigh the tides of public opinion when voting.

Ms Duterte’s critics think that once details of the scale of her alleged corruption are laid out, public opinion will turn against her. That is why Mr Cayetano may delay or obfuscate the trial process.

For all the cronyism under Mr Marcos, who can serve only one term, the president bends towards the rule of law and away from violence. He sees himself as redeeming the Marcos legacy so tainted by his father. He will hope to see a successor with a similar vision. The dynastic image nurtured by Ms Duterte, who allegedly throws laptops at her staff and once punched a court sheriff in the jaw, is built on guns, violence and the politics of revenge. There are two very different directions the country might take. ■