Trade or Taiwan? Trump and Xi struggle to set the terms

THE TEMPLE of Heaven in Beijing has long been a symbol of cosmological order and imperial authority. The complex, built in the 15th century, was designed to represent the relationship between the human and divine worlds, and the special role played in that by the Chinese emperor, as the “son of heaven”. At least once a year, emperors would process from the Forbidden City to the temple with a vast entourage to perform ceremonies praying for a good harvest, benevolent weather and harmony across the realm.

Stability and fruitful returns were also on the minds of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump when they toured the temple on the first day of a summit in Beijing on May 14th. China’s leader greeted his American counterpart with a ceremony on Tiananmen Square, followed by talks in the Great Hall of the People. But then, unusually for a visiting leader, Mr Xi escorted Mr Trump around the Temple of Heaven in the afternoon, before proceeding to a state banquet. Mr Trump was scheduled to leave China on May 15th following more talks over tea and a working lunch.

The temple tour served both leaders’ interests at the summit. It is their first in China since 2017 and is expected to focus on issues including trade, Taiwan and artificial intelligence. Mr Trump will no doubt portray the visit to the temple as a sign of respect. He had said that he wanted China to outdo his last visit to Beijing, which featured an unprecedented private dinner with Mr Xi in the Forbidden City. Overall, this visit falls a bit short. But the temple excursion (the first by an American president since 1975) will help Mr Trump sell it as a success back home. He hopes to prop up approval ratings weighed down by his war against Iran.

For Mr Xi, meanwhile, it was a glowing opportunity to project an image of personal authority and civilizational grandeur. That will play well with many Chinese who, despite an economic slowdown, see their country growing in international stature as Mr Trump embroils America in military adventures abroad. “I don’t welcome him here to be honest: he likes to make trouble,” says Gu Yeming, who works in a photography studio near the temple. “But at the very least the two countries should be able to talk and help make the world more peaceful.”

The summit’s choreography also helps compensate for an expected shortfall in progress on the big structural differences between the two sides. In public, both leaders sought to play down those differences as their talks began. “We’re going to have a fantastic future together,” said Mr Trump, calling Mr Xi a “great leader”. The American delegation also included Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary. Mr Xi suggested that common interests outweighed differences, and that stability in relations benefited the world. “We should be partners, not rivals,” said Mr Xi, who was flanked by his chief of staff, Cai Qi.

The two leaders’ main goal, according to people involved, was to prolong the year-long truce in a trade war that was agreed when they last shook hands, in South Korea in October. (That is critical given that at their height last year, Mr Trump’s tariffs on some Chinese goods reached 145%.) Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary, who has been leading negotiations with China, held preparatory talks with He Lifeng, China’s vice-premier, in Seoul on May 13th. One hoped-for outcome is a deal to establish new mechanisms which will better facilitate bilateral commerce, including a “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment”, although details are fuzzy.

Other pacts are expected too, particularly around China buying more American beef, soyabeans and Boeing airliners. Accompanying Mr Trump are more than a dozen American business leaders, including Elon Musk of Tesla, Tim Cook of Apple, Larry Fink of BlackRock and Kelly Ortberg of Boeing. Jensen Huang of Nvidia was a late addition, boarding Air Force One during a stopover in Alaska. That raised expectations of talks about China getting more Nvidia chips, craved by Chinese AI developers. On his way to the summit, Mr Trump said that his first request to Mr Xi would be for him to “open up” China to American business.

Mr Xi’s top priority is Taiwan, the self-governed island that China claims. He warned Mr Trump in their meeting that mishandling the issue could bring China and America into conflict. China has been lobbying hard for Mr Trump to delay or reduce arms sales to Taiwan and to declare that America “opposes” the island’s independence. Mr Trump alarmed Taiwan’s government this week by saying (again) that he planned to discuss the question of arms sales with Mr Xi, in apparent violation of longstanding American assurances to the island. White House officials have played down the prospects for a formal change in America’s position, however, even if Mr Trump deviates from it in off-the-cuff remarks. And Chinese government advisers say they are hoping for progress over the course of the year (with three more Trump-Xi meetings expected) rather than just at this summit.

The two leaders may also struggle to find common ground over the wars in Europe and the Middle East. China has consistently rebuffed American appeals for it to stop providing economic and dual-use assistance for Russia’s war in Ukraine. American officials had said in the run-up to the summit that Mr Trump would urge Mr Xi to curb Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, avoid providing military technology to the Islamic republic and pressure it to open the Strait of Hormuz. But as Mr Trump departed for Beijing, he suggested that Iran would not actually feature much in the discussions.

On AI, American officials want to establish a regular dialogue with China, and potentially a hotline, at the summit. A similar dialogue started under Mr Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, and led to a declaration in 2024 that only humans should control nuclear weapons. Both sides still share concerns about AI security risks, such as its use by non-state actors to conduct cyber fraud or create pathogens. But even if they do re-establish a dialogue, meaningful co-operation will be hampered by strategic mistrust and intense competition to produce ever more powerful models.

Stability and profitable enterprise may indeed be common aspirations. Yet in most areas, both leaders now see their relationship as a zero-sum contest. And neither the show of unity at the Temple of Heaven, nor any other part of this summit, is likely to change that view of the new cosmological order. ■