Donald Trump claims to have ended eight “unendable” wars in his second term. In some cases he exaggerates his role; in others the fighting rages on. In Gaza, though, he really did impose a ceasefire, force Israel to withdraw from populated areas and compel Hamas to release its hostages.
However, this was just the first phase of a 20-point peace plan. In the three months since the ceasefire went into effect, only one element of the second phase has been implemented. A Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (ncag) was appointed on January 14th. Since Israel has not allowed its 15 members to enter the devastated territory, let alone govern it, it is unclear that it has much power.
The obstacles to peace in Gaza are steep. Hamas is in no rush to give up what remains of its arsenal or relinquish its grip on much of Gaza. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, will face voters this year and is loth to withdraw further. Israel still controls more than half the territory and occasionally conducts deadly strikes there. It is reluctant to pull back troops or relinquish any control while Hamas still has power.
Mr Trump pushed through the first phase by making clear demands of both sides. He followed this with pressure on Mr Netanyahu, applied personally, and on Hamas through its patrons, Qatar and Turkey. When either side hesitated, Mr Trump simply declared that an agreement had been reached, daring them to contradict him. His bullying style of dealmaking succeeded where two years of diplomacy had failed. Since then, however, his attention has drifted.
The recent announcement of three new peacemaking bodies is unlikely to get the process back on track. The executive board Mr Trump has appointed to oversee Gaza is dominated by people more adept at scouting for business than ending humanitarian crises. It does not include a single Palestinian. Over them all will sit a “Board of Peace”, a private club of world leaders. Membership will cost $1bn. The veto-wielding chairman, perhaps for life, is Mr Trump.
The board’s charter laments that “too many approaches to peace-building foster perpetual dependency and institutionalise crisis.” This is undoubtedly true of much conventional diplomacy. If the board is the “nimble and effective international peace-building body” the charter envisages, the world should cheer. But could a forum tailored to one man’s unquenchable ego provide a useful alternative to the UN?
More likely, it will distract further from the plight of Gaza. That territory remains divided between an Israeli-occupied wasteland and a Hamas fief. This is a recipe for prolonged misery for 2m Gazans, many of whom remain homeless and without much food or medical care. These are the sort of conditions in which a new war might break out. Mr Trump alone has the power to force Mr Netanyahu and Hamas’s chiefs to take the next steps. His plan for Gaza won widespread international backing. He should focus on that.
To alleviate the suffering of Gazans and prevent that return to war, the rest of phase two should be implemented—and urgently. The ncag should be allowed into Gaza and given the resources it needs to start preparing for reconstruction. An international peacekeeping force should be assembled and deployed. A verifiable process of disarming Hamas’s fighters must begin. And Israel must withdraw its troops from Gaza’s farmland as a prelude to a full withdrawal. Israel should allow much more aid to enter Gaza. The strip should be flooded with food, medicine and building materials.
Even with Mr Trump’s talent for strong-arming, none of this will be easy to bring about. But paying attention to Gaza is the first task. Success there would do more than anything else to burnish the president’s peacemaking credentials. ■
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