Could Europe take on Russia without American help?

I read the column by David Gioe and Doug Chalmers on whether Europe could take on Russia without American help (By Invitation, January 5th). I am concerned about the authors’ use of a fictitious scenario focused on a potential Russian land-grab of Latvian territory. This scenario follows a pattern of picking some place next to the Russian border, be it Daugavpils, Narva or the Suwalki Gap, to illustrate the potential conflict with Russia.

Such hypothetical scenarios were published ad nauseam in the spring of 2014 following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. They ring especially hollow today, as they overlook the transformative advancements in the security and defence capabilities of the Baltic states since then. Over the past decade, Latvia, similar to Estonia and Lithuania (and Poland and Finland), has made substantial investments in its military infrastructure, border security and interoperability with NATO forces. Latvia’s national defence spending has been above 2% of GDP during previous years and will be 5% of GDP for 2026. This tangible investment in capabilities coupled with the strong presence of NATO multinational forces in our country form the basis of a robust framework of security and deterrence.

If the intention behind the column was to raise public awareness among the wider European audience about the necessity for additional military spending, then I believe that this scenario misses the point. Mentioning the names of a few regional cities in the Baltic countries will hardly illustrate the threat in a convincing way to the average citizen in London. And it could be counter-productive by being perceived as a warning signal to businesses when assessing opportunities in the Baltics.

It would have been more useful to write about the current challenges that all allied countries face, such as cyber-threats, hybrid warfare or sabotage operations, and the urgent need to step up defence spending across Europe. The commitments to defence investments made at NATO’s summit in 2025 were historic. Now it is time to deliver.

Maris Riekstins
Ambassador of Latvia to NATO
Brussels

I accept your “first-mover disadvantage” explanation for Novo Nordisk falling behind in the weight-loss market (“The curse of overnight success”, December 20th). But the drug company is not comparable to Pop Mart (and its bewilderingly successful Labubu dolls). Pop Mart is 16 years old and nobody knows whether it will be around in another decade. Novo is into its second century. It is controlled by a charity that has the stability of Novo Nordisk as a main objective, as well as medical research. You didn’t mention growth or shareholder value; both have followed nonetheless.

In any event, is it such a bad outcome to be number two in the biggest pharmaceutical market in history? None other than Eli Lilly was number one in insulin for much of the 20th century. The Danish tortoise, however, obsessed over producing better-quality insulin, perhaps as a direct result of its non-financial goals, and eventually took the crown. I hope Novo’s current leadership remains similarly focused on the next century and not the next quarter.

Faisal Sheikh
Managing director
Monmouth Capital
London

You highlight how artificial intelligence is shortening the path to new drugs (“The imagination factory”, January 10th). However, the revolution has yet to reach cancer patients. Oncology trials still operate as a lottery where patients exhaust their health, and in some cases life savings, on therapies that were never likely to work for their specific biology.

The synthetic patient, or digital twin, technology you describe represents progress, yet it suffers from a fundamental limitation: failing to account for an individual’s biological complexity. Current approaches match patients by demographics and medical history, essentially, high-tech filters to identify historical analogues. But two patients with identical clinical profiles often respond to the same drug in radically different ways. This is because clinical characteristics tell us about the patient, not their tumour; their history, not their future.

By modelling the molecular machinery of individual tumours rather than historical controls, AI can more effectively predict which therapies will work before the first dose is administered, whether in trials or in standard care. This approach requires a collective commitment from clinicians, researchers, funders and regulators to prioritise mechanistic understanding over demographic matching.

Dr Irina Babina
Chief executive
Concr
Bath

AI-designed molecules show an 80-90% success rate in early-stage safety trials, compared with a historical average of just 40-65%, you say. That’s good news for the startups responsible for those early trials, using cell cultures or perhaps mice, but it is not going to affect the total cost of getting a drug approved much. The big money is spent later. The stakes increase greatly as a potential drug moves through the pipeline. If AI can increase success rates later, that will reduce costs substantially. As you say, it will be years before that is known.

“The end of a 10m-year love affair” (December 20th) looked at how the world’s fondness for alcohol might end. This deserves a footnote on the importance of drinking in history. Peter the Great did not merely drink; he institutionalised it. Military reforms and court appointments were settled during prolonged bouts of conviviality. Talleyrand drank prodigiously and ensured that others did too. Much of post-Napoleonic Europe was rearranged not in conference halls but over dinners soaked in burgundy and champagne. Both the public and alcohol were welcomed at Andrew Jackson’s inauguration, which descended into a drunken riot that permanently altered American political ritual.

I agree with Babbage (December 24th) that “Blade Runner” is a seminal science-fiction, or even philosophical film. Another key plot twist is that many people think Rick Deckard, the protagonist, is himself a synthetic biological (not mechanical) human or replicant, but does not know it. Thus, the central cruelty of the film is that a replicant is sent to kill other replicants. All his colleagues know this, which is why they despise him and tease him with paper and matchstick unicorns, a reference to the genetically engineered dreams that replicants have. Deckard is in effect a slave, ignorant of his origins, hunting others like him ensnared by a biologically defined absence of liberty.

The philosophical themes in “Blade Runner”, of manipulation, unchecked corporate or authoritarian power and the rights of the individual, grow with time rather than diminish.

In addition to the high-intensity interval training programmes you mentioned (Well informed, January 10th), the 5BX fitness regime is a great way to get in shape. Developed in the 1950s for the Canadian air force the programme can take just 11 minutes and is high intensity without the intervals. It does not involve weights. When I was 59 I did it for four months and was in my best shape ever. It was not easy, but combined with walking, I dropped 37lb (16.5kg).

In my experience, “The best way to train for a marathon” (January 3rd) is to wear a shirt bearing your name in large letters. Whether your training runs have been slow or fast, nothing helps more at the 18-mile mark than a complete stranger shouting out “Come on, Jonathan!”

Your article on self-help books put me in mind of a wonderful remark from Peter Drucker, the doyen of management consultants (“Self-absorbed”, January 3rd). Drucker simultaneously insulted two groups when he quipped that journalists describe purveyors of self-help books as “gurus” because they can’t spell “charlatan”.